Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| FK Vardar Skopje (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FK Vardar Skopje O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Vardar Skopje O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FK Vardar Skopje 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Vardar Skopje 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kuopion PS (-1.5) | 0% |
| Kuopion PS (-2.5) | 0% |
| FK Vardar Skopje (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kuopion PS O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Kuopion PS O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kuopion PS O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Vardar Skopje O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kuopion PS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Kuopion PS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Vardar Skopje 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Vardar Skopje 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kuopion PS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Kuopion PS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Kuopion PS have already secured a 2–0 victory over FK Vardar Skopje in their UEFA Champions League qualifier, with the match concluding earlier today at 11:00 AM ET. The result is now final, meaning the “More Markets” contract on Polymarket has no unresolved uncertainty to price. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects that the underlying event has settled definitively, leaving no room for conditional token payouts on unmet outcomes.
In on-chain prediction markets like this, once a match ends and the result is confirmed by official sources, conditional tokens tied to unmet conditions collapse to zero value. Historical precedents show that similar post-match contracts on Polygon, settled in USDC, routinely trade at 0% or 100% immediately after the final whistle, depending on the outcome. With the 2–0 win already recorded for Kuopion PS, any “YES” position on unmet markets is effectively worthless, mirroring past cases where settled sports contracts lost all speculative value once results were official [1].
Traders should monitor the official UEFA match report and Polymarket’s resolution timestamp to confirm formal settlement, though the live ticker already confirms the final score. No further announcements, schedule changes, or dependencies will alter this outcome. The settlement window ending 2026-07-14T15:00:00Z is now redundant, as the event has concluded. On-chain mechanics will process the resolution automatically, converting all conditional tokens to their final state based on the confirmed result.
Sources: 1
Methodology
This page reviews Kuopion PS vs. FK Vardar Skopje - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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