Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Páfos FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Páfos FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Páfos FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Páfos FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| Páfos FC O/U 0.5 | 98% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Páfos FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| HNK Hajduk Split (-1.5) | 0% |
| Páfos FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| HNK Hajduk Split (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Páfos FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| HNK Hajduk Split O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| HNK Hajduk Split O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| HNK Hajduk Split O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Páfos FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Páfos FC and HNK Hajduk Split meet in the Europa League qualifying tie, with Polymarket’s **“More Markets”** contract pricing at **100% YES** as the deadline approaches. On Polymarket, that means USDC is already being used on Polygon to hold conditional tokens tied to whether any additional market resolutions are posted for this fixture before settlement, rather than to the football result itself.
That reading fits the match context: Hajduk won the first leg **2-0** in Split, and multiple match trackers now list the return leg in Limassol on 30 July with Alphamega Stadium as the venue.[2][10][13] Comparable early-round European ties with a clear first-leg cushion often still generate extra side markets on line-up news, aggregate scenarios and qualification outcomes, because traders react to the second-leg setup rather than the scoreline alone.[6][12]
The main catalysts are official team news, whether either side names a rotated XI, and any UEFA or club updates on kick-off logistics, officials or player availability before settlement.[6][13] Because the contract window ends at **17:00 UTC** on 30 July, traders watching the chain should pay attention to whether new market listings appear before then; on Polymarket, the practical question is whether fresh conditional-token markets are created and resolved in time, not whether the teams are simply on the pitch.[10][13]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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