Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tromsø IL (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
Market context
Tromsø IL and FC Hradec Králové are scheduled to meet in the UEFA Europa League qualifiers at Romssa Arena, and Polymarket is pricing the related “More Markets” contract at **0% YES** right now, using USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon rather than a standard sportsbook line.[1][2] For Polymarket users, that means the market is currently implying no visible path to a qualifying “more markets” resolution before the settlement window closes, even though the underlying football match itself is still the live sporting reference point.[2]
A 0% print is typically read as either a very weak expectation of the contract’s conditions being satisfied or as a market that has effectively been left without active bidding support. In comparable UEFA qualifying ties, traders usually anchor on whether the fixture is confirmed to proceed as scheduled, because the information set can move quickly around team sheets, venue status, and competition administration. Here, both teams were drawn together in Round 2 of the Europa League qualifiers, which is the relevant structural frame for how conditional market outcomes are being attached to the match.[1]
The main catalysts are practical rather than speculative: official match confirmation, any late schedule changes, and whether the tie is completed within the stated settlement window. Match listings place kick-off on 23 July at 19:00 local time in Tromsø, so any delay, abandonment, or administrative reshuffle would matter more to the contract than headline scoreline chatter.[2][3] Traders watching the on-chain market will be focused on whether the event resolves cleanly before 17:00 UTC settlement cut-off, since that is what ultimately determines whether the conditional tokens pay out or expire unresolved.[2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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