Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
62% | 38% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
62% | 38% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Map 1 Winner | 48% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 47% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 46% |
| Match Winner | 41% |
| Map 2 Winner | 39% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: eternal fire vs team heretics (bo3) - vct emea group omega stands at 62% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Eternal Fire and Team Heretics in the VCT EMEA Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 23 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →