Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-8.5) vs AG.AL International (+8.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 99% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 3% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-9.5) vs AG.AL International (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: mibr los vs ag.al international (bo3) - esports world cup group d. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between MIBR LOS and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 7 at 7:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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