Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tony Dunst | 100% |
| Kristen Foxen | 98% |
| Brian Hastings | 98% |
| Robert Eichele | 97% |
| Kathy Liebert | 97% |
| Stephen Song | 97% |
| Michael Mizrachi | 96% |
| Jeremy Ausmus | 96% |
| Chris Moneymaker | 96% |
| Alex Foxen | 96% |
| Greg Raymer | 96% |
| Stephen Chidwick | 51% |
| Martin Zamani | 51% |
| Ryuta Nakai | 51% |
| Chris Hunichen | 51% |
| Erik Seidel | 49% |
| Greg Merson | 49% |
| Gerard Piqué | 49% |
| Joe McKeehen | 49% |
| Daniel Negreanu | 5% |
| Martin Kabrhel | 3% |
| Phil Hellmuth | 3% |
| Freddy Deeb | 3% |
| Scott Seiver | 2% |
| Robert Varkonyi | 1% |
| Jason Koon | 0% |
| Joe Cada | 0% |
| Daniel Weinman | 0% |
| Damian Salas | 0% |
| Viktor Blom | 0% |
| Sean O'Malley | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wsop 2026 main event: which players will cash. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes the 2026 World Series of Poker Main Event, Event #82, held July 2–13, 2026, with the final table played August 3–5, 202…
Methodology
This page reviews WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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