Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to iasi open, qualification: ilinca amariei vs carmen andreea herea. This market refers to the tennis match between Ilinca Amariei and Carmen Andreea Herea in the Iasi Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
We track Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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