Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 2 Winner | 51% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen | 7% |
| Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of newport: mei yamaguchi vs greet minnen. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Mei Yamaguchi and Greet Minnen in the Newport, originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mei…
Methodology
We track Newport: Mei Yamaguchi vs Greet Minnen across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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