Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 96% |
| Game 1 Winner | 95% |
| Game 2 Winner | 94% |
| Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs FALKE Esports (+1.5) | 91% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 9% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: team heretics academy vs falke esports (bo3) - les regular season stands at 96% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between Team Heretics Academy and FALKE Esports in the LES Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 30 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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