Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Player Penta Kill | 94% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 71% |
| Match Winner | 61% |
| Game 1 Winner | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Game 2 Winner | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 44% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) | 33% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 30% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 26% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% |
Market context
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group — current market-implied probability: 94%. This market refers to the LoL match between T1 and Dplus KIA in the LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group, initially scheduled for August 14 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match ag…
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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