FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **More Markets** contract at **100% YES**, so the on-chain market on Polygon, settled in USDC through conditional tokens, is effectively behaving as if the related MLS game between FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes has already satisfied the listed “more markets” condition. The underlying match was scheduled for 1 August at 7:30 pm ET, and the current quote leaves no visible uncertainty in the market price today.

For context, the comparable match history has often leaned towards goals rather than caution. FC Cincinnati beat San Jose 4-2 in June 2024 and 6-0 in September 2022, while San Jose won 1-0 in 2019; across those three meetings Cincinnati has won two and San Jose one, with 10 Cincinnati goals to 3 for the Earthquakes.[1][10][13] Recent form also points in the same direction: Cincinnati came in off a 2-1 loss to Columbus but had just beaten Vancouver 4-3, while San Jose drew 1-1 with LA Galaxy after a 4-0 home defeat to Orlando City.[2] That kind of score profile helps explain why a “more markets” contract would draw a one-sided price if traders expected the listed condition to have been met.

The main live catalysts for a trader are the official match reports, any corrections to the scoring or event data, and whether the settlement logic depends on a specific scoreboard threshold, card count, or other stat rather than the final result alone. FC Cincinnati’s club recap and the league match pages are the most relevant public references for confirming what happened on the night, while pre-match and same-day injury or rotation news can matter for the path to the outcome even if they do not change a market that is already trading at parity with a near-certain settlement.[3][12][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.