Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 84% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 79% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 78% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 64% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 64% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 62% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 51% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 48% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 39% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 34% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 34% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 33% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 33% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 33% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 246.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Spread -18.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, grizzlies vs. warriors stands at 84% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "War…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $536K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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