Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 97% |
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 32.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 34.5 | 94% |
| O/U 36.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 90% |
| O/U 38.5 | 88% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| O/U 42.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 77% |
| O/U 44.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 46.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 70% |
| Bills vs. Raiders | 69% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| O/U 48.5 | 66% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 64% |
| 1H Moneyline | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 61% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 61% |
| O/U 50.5 | 60% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| O/U 52.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 54% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills vs. Raiders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Safety? | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 48% |
| O/U 54.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 43% |
| O/U 56.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 42% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 39% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| O/U 58.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -19.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 62.5 | 25% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 24% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| O/U 64.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 66.5 | 18% |
| Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 68.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 97% probability to bills vs. raiders. In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Raiders, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if Bills win the game. This market will resolve to "Raiders" if …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $206K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2354a9eb%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Bills vs. Raiders on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →