Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
58% | 42% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
58% | 42% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 58% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 3 - 2 Viking FK | 36% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2 - 3 Viking FK | 34% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 3 - 3 Viking FK | 29% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2 - 2 Viking FK | 6% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2 - 1 Viking FK | 2% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 3 - 1 Viking FK | 2% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 0 Viking FK | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 1 Viking FK | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1 - 0 Viking FK | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 2 Viking FK | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1 - 1 Viking FK | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2 - 0 Viking FK | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 3 Viking FK | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1 - 2 Viking FK | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 3 - 0 Viking FK | 0% |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1 - 3 Viking FK | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 58% YES probability for GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. Viking FK - Exact Score. In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between GNK Dinamo Zagreb and Viking FK, scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the GNK Dinamo Zag…
Methodology
We track GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. Viking FK - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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