Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 2.5 | 67% |
| Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) | 62% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Górnik Zabrze O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score | 46% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) | 38% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Górnik Zabrze 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 31% |
| O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 24% |
| Górnik Zabrze 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 23% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 17% |
| Górnik Zabrze O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Górnik Zabrze 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 7% |
| Górnik Zabrze 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 5% |
| Górnik Zabrze O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Górnik Zabrze (-1.5) | 1% |
| Górnik Zabrze (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, fenerbahçe sk vs. górnik zabrze - more markets stands at 97% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for July 21 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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