Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5) | 0% |
| FK ML Viciebsk (-1.5) | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-2.5) | 0% |
| FK ML Viciebsk (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK ML Viciebsk O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK ML Viciebsk O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK ML Viciebsk O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK ML Viciebsk 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK ML Viciebsk 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK ML Viciebsk 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK ML Viciebsk 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Universitatea Craiova CS faces FK ML Viciebsk in a UEFA Champions League qualifier tonight at Complex Sportiv Craiova, with the match kicking off at 17:30 local time. On Polymarket, the “More Markets” contract for this fixture trades at 0% YES, implying the crowd expects no resolution in the additional betting categories offered for this game. Traders using USDC on Polygon see conditional tokens priced to zero, reflecting a near-certainty that the market will settle as NO under the on-chain settlement logic.
Historically, Champions League qualifier “more markets” contracts—such as those for total corners, first-half goals, or player props—often collapse to 0% when liquidity is thin or when the underlying event lacks sufficient betting depth. Comparable cases from 2024 and 2025 show that early-stage qualifiers with limited pre-match odds coverage frequently see these auxiliary markets settle as NO, especially when the main match odds dominate trader attention. The 0% price here aligns with that pattern, suggesting the market views these extra conditions as unlikely to trigger.
Key catalysts include the final team lineups, any late injury announcements, and whether the match proceeds without delay. A recent preview from FootballCritic notes both sides are in early-season form, with no major squad disruptions reported ahead of tonight’s clash [1]. Traders should monitor live updates on 365scores for lineup confirmations and in-play momentum shifts, as these could influence whether any secondary market conditions activate before the 2026-07-15 settlement window closes [2].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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