Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-1.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht (-1.5) | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-2.5) | 0% |
| RSC Anderlecht (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Hammarby Fotboll and RSC Anderlecht are due to meet in UEFA Europa League action, and Polymarket is pricing the **“more markets”** contract at just **1% YES** on USDC collateral, settled through Polygon-based conditional tokens. For a Polymarket user, that means the market is treating the contract as a very low-likelihood outcome unless a qualifying event or linked market condition is confirmed before the settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC.
A 1% price is consistent with how these side markets often behave when the listed condition is narrow, poorly specified, or dependent on match-day metadata rather than the result itself. In practice, contracts in this zone usually only move materially if the underlying fixture produces an outcome the market has not already discounted, or if there is a clarification from Polymarket’s resolution process that changes how the condition is interpreted. Comparable football-side markets frequently sit near zero until line-ups, competition status, or official scheduling details are finalised.
The main catalysts to watch are formal team news, kick-off confirmation, and any competition or scheduling updates that affect whether the contract’s condition is met. Because the market settles on-chain, traders should focus on what can be resolved from official sources and match records rather than on live sentiment alone. If the game is delayed, altered, or the market’s “more markets” framing depends on additional event data, that can matter more here than the scoreline itself.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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