Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-3.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-4.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-5.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-6.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-7.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Match Winner | 74% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 61% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-3.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-4.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-4.5) vs GIANTX (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-5.5) vs GIANTX (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-6.5) vs GIANTX (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Winner | 42% |
| Map Handicap: GX (-1.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+1.5) | 40% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-8.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+8.5) | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Valorant: GIANTX vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket round 1 match between GIANTX and Eintracht Frankfurt in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 6 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: GIANTX vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - VCT … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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