Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics | 56% |
| O/U 165.5 | 56% |
| Shakira Austin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 166.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Sonia Citron: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| O/U 167.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| O/U 168.5 | 48% |
| Jessica Shepard: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Jessica Shepard: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Jessica Shepard: Points O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Azzi Fudd: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Jessica Shepard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| Sonia Citron: Points O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Azzi Fudd: Points O/U 13.5 | 25% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 56% YES probability for Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 5 at 7:30PM ET: If the Dallas Wings win, the market will resolve to "Dallas Wings". If the Washington Mystics win, the market will resolve to "Washingto…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $156K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics on PolyGram
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