Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate

Platform comparison

Market context

Murphy Cassone and Tristan Schoolkate are set to face off in their Granby tennis match, originally scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on 13 July 2026, with the market now pricing a 100% YES probability that Cassone advances. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the crowd’s absolute conviction in Cassone’s victory despite the match date having already passed relative to the current UTC time of 22:24 on 14 July.

Historically, such 100% pricing in tennis prediction markets often signals either a walkover, a retirement before play, or a confirmed result not yet formally settled on-chain. Comparable cases from ATP events show that when a match is delayed beyond seven days or cancelled without a winner, resolution defaults to 50-50, yet the current pricing suggests the market treats the outcome as effectively decided, possibly due to an unreported retirement or administrative confirmation of Cassone’s advancement.

Traders should monitor official ATP Granby announcements for any late updates on match completion, player withdrawals, or disqualifications, as these are the primary catalysts that could alter resolution. A recent ATP bulletin confirms no official retirement has been recorded for Schoolkate as of 12 July, but the absence of a completed match result by 14 July raises the risk of a 50-50 settlement if the tournament delays beyond the seven-day window [1]. Watch for real-time updates on the tournament’s official site or Polymarket’s resolution feed for definitive confirmation.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.