National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **100% YES**, so the market is effectively treating Jacob Fearnley as having already advanced against Adrian Mannarino. On Polymarket, traders buy and sell conditional tokens for USDC on Polygon, and the token resolves to one side only if the match result is final and fits the event rules; if the match is not played, ends level, or is pushed beyond the seven-day limit, it can settle at 50-50 instead.

The live tennis listings place Fearnley and Mannarino in the National Bank Open men’s singles main draw in Montreal, with the match framed as a first-round hard-court meeting at Stade Iga. Pre-match comparables were split: Tennis.com gave Mannarino a 61% projected win chance, while other preview pages leaned towards Fearnley, citing his recent form and the match-up on outdoor hard courts[3][10][14]. The head-to-head was listed as 0-0 on Tennis Majors before the match, and both players were entered as active participants in the round-of-128/first-round draw[4][1].

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: whether the ATP order of play confirms the fixture, whether it starts on court, and whether any suspension, retirement or weather delay changes completion status. Several live scoring and watch pages show the contest as scheduled for 3-4 August in Montreal, but with the current market already fixed at 100%, the key risk is not pre-match pricing movement so much as a post-start outcome that prevents a clean winner from being recorded[5][6][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.