Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Kilian Feldbausch at 0% YES** on this contract, so the market is effectively saying his advance against Ignacio Buse is not being assigned any meaningful probability in the current book. On Polymarket, the position is a USDC-settled conditional token on Polygon, so the price reflects tradable odds on the match outcome rather than a view of the players in the abstract.

The setup helps explain why that line is so extreme. A preview from The Stats Zone lists Buse as the pick to win 2-0, while RPP reported the match as scheduled for Wednesday 22 July on the central court, with live coverage available in Peru on Disney+.[1][2] In a match-specific market like this, the important comparison is not ATP ranking alone but who is expected to clear the opening round and, if the fixture is delayed or abandoned, whether the settlement rules force a 50-50 outcome instead of a straight win for either side. That matters because Polymarket resolves on whether one player advances, not merely whether play starts.

For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: official order of play updates, any court reassignment, and whether the match is completed within the seven-day settlement window ending 2026-07-29T10:30:00Z. If the match is postponed, interrupted, or cancelled, the contract can shift away from a pure winner-takes-all resolution and into the market’s tie mechanics. With volume already visible on the event page, the main risk is not a surprise late price move so much as a schedule change that alters settlement status rather than tennis form.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.