Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of brasov: guido justo vs sebastian gima. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Guido Justo and Sebastian Gima in the Brasov, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Guid…
Methodology
This page reviews Brasov: Guido Justo vs Sebastian Gima across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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