National Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Botic van de Zandschulp

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Daniil Medvedev to advance here at just **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively at the floor despite the underlying ATP Masters 1000 match being listed on the National Bank Open schedule. On Polymarket, buyers fund positions in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the event outcome translated into **conditional tokens** that settle to one side or the other once the market resolves.

That reading sits well below the wider tennis market. External books and prediction sites still show Medvedev as the clear favourite, with one recent price at **-475** and another model giving him about **73%** implied probability, while head-to-head records also lean his way, with Medvedev leading the series **4-1**. Comparable markets on the same event have also been heavily one-sided, which makes a zero-priced Polymarket line more likely to reflect trading liquidity, timing, or market microstructure than a genuine view that van de Zandschulp is favoured to win.

The key catalysts are operational rather than theoretical: confirmation that the match is actually played, whether it starts on the published schedule, and any late change to the order of play or court assignment. The market’s settlement rules matter here as well, because a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days from the scheduled date would push it to **50-50** instead of a normal winner-take-all close. Traders should also watch for official score reporting and bracket updates from the tournament and the market’s own status on Polymarket, since any delay in a completed result can keep conditional tokens unresolved even after a match has been staged.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.