National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token on Nicolas Mejia at **14% YES** today, which implies Martin Landaluce as the clear favourite unless the match is interrupted or the settlement rules push it into the 50-50 fallback. The contract resolves on which player advances, so for traders the key is not just the on-court winner but whether the scheduled National Bank Open match is actually completed within the seven-day window.

The price sits well below the market’s pre-match tennis data. Landaluce was listed around ATP 63 to Mejia’s ATP 131, and preview models and bookmaker-style projections in the available feeds leaned towards Landaluce, with one tennis preview putting him at roughly 74% and another at 69% to win. That said, the matchup came with limited direct history: the players had no previous head-to-head, and Mejia was still seeking his first main-draw Masters-level win on hard court, while Landaluce had a mixed but stronger record against lower-ranked opponents this season.[1][11][14]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: official draw updates, any late schedule changes in Montreal, and whether the match is started and finished before the settlement cutoff. Because this market uses the event result rather than a general tournament outcome, a walkover, cancellation, or long delay can matter as much as the scoreline, and the on-chain position will only resolve once the outcome fits the market’s exact rules. No fresh injury report or cancellation notice was present in the cited feeds, so the immediate watchpoint is the ATP/National Bank Open schedule and any live score progression from Montreal.[4][15][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.