Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky faces Duncan Chan in the Granby Challenger men’s singles match, originally slated for 13 July 2026 but now confirmed for 14 July 2026 at 9:25pm local time in Canada [2][3]. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 100% YES for Milavsky advancing, implying near-certainty of his victory despite the match not yet being played. The market resolves to Milavsky if he wins, to Chan if he advances, and to a 50-50 split if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a result.

Historically, such 100% implied probabilities in pre-match tennis contracts on Polymarket often reflect either a confirmed withdrawal or overwhelming odds favouring one player. In this case, initial betting odds list Milavsky at 1.50 versus Chan at 2.375, with Tennis Tonic explicitly picking Milavsky to win in three sets [1]. Comparable cases show that when odds gap exceeds 0.80 and expert picks align, pre-match markets frequently lock in near-100% pricing, especially on Polygon’s conditional token layer where USDC liquidity concentrates around clear favourites.

Traders should monitor the official Granby Challenger draw confirmation and any injury updates before the 14 July start time. A late withdrawal by Chan would cement the 100% YES resolution, while a postponement beyond 21 July triggers the 50-50 clause. No recent news has surfaced indicating disruption, but the tournament’s daily schedule on Tennis Stats confirms the match is still listed as active [3]. On-chain, the contract’s USDC settlement on Polygon ensures automatic execution once the match outcome is verified.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.