Estoril Open: Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinez

Platform comparison

Market context

The Estoril Open match between Henrique Rocha and Pedro Martinez, originally set for 11:30AM ET on 20 July 2026, has already concluded with Pedro Martinez advancing after defeating Rocha. Rocha lost the contest, having been defeated in the final set after Martinez won the first set 4–5 in the deciding frame context [1]. This outcome explains the current 0% YES probability for Rocha on Polymarket, as the conditional token for his advancement is effectively worthless given the match result.

Historically, prediction markets on Polymarket resolve instantly once on-chain data confirms the event outcome, with USDC payouts on Polygon executing automatically via conditional tokens. In comparable tennis markets where a player loses before the settlement window closes, the contract price collapses to zero immediately, mirroring the current pricing for Rocha. Traders familiar with these mechanics recognise that a 0% price reflects a settled result rather than uncertainty, unlike cases where matches are delayed or cancelled, which would trigger the 50–50 resolution clause.

Traders should monitor official ATP or Estoril Open announcements for any rare post-match disputes or appeals that could theoretically alter the result, though no such developments are currently reported. The settlement window ending 27 July 2026 serves primarily as a formal deadline for the protocol to confirm the outcome on-chain, not as a period of active uncertainty. With the match completed and Martinez advancing, the market is functionally closed for Rocha, and any liquidity remains speculative on potential administrative reversals, which are exceptionally uncommon in professional tennis.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.