National Bank Open: Zachary Svajda vs Arthur Fils

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, so on-chain buyers of the USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token are implying no chance that Zachary Svajda advances against Arthur Fils before the market’s 13 August settlement deadline. The real-world event is straightforward: a National Bank Open match in Montreal, originally scheduled for 6 August, with resolution tied to which player actually progresses rather than to pre-match odds or scoreline aesthetics.

That 0% reading sits against a lopsided baseline. Fils is the higher-ranked player in the match listings, around ATP No. 24 versus Svajda near No. 87, and head-to-head sources show no prior tour-level meetings, so the market is leaning on current form rather than any direct history.[2][9][10] Season and surface data also favour Fils: one comparison lists him with a 2026 win rate near 72% and a strong hard-court record, while Svajda’s 2026 numbers are materially lower overall and on hard courts.[3][7] For traders, that matters because a contract at zero can still move if the match setup changes, but it needs a live catalyst to break the current consensus.

The main things to watch are the official order of play, any late withdrawal, and whether the match is actually completed. If the match is not played, ends without a winner, or is delayed beyond seven days, the market resolves 50-50 under the contract rules; if it starts but is unfinished, advancement by retirement or walkover still decides the outcome. Current live listings from tennis and score sites show the matchup as scheduled for 5 August in Montreal, which means Polymarket users are mainly watching whether the draw, court assignment, or any pre-match medical update changes the path to settlement.[2][9][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.