Wimbledon WTA: Amanda Anisimova vs Sofia Kenin

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is already settled: Amanda Anisimova defeated Sofia Kenin in a dramatic second-round Wimbledon WTA match on 2 July 2026, winning 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(3) after fending off a late Kenin surge in the final set[1][2]. Anisimova served 20 aces, including three in the deciding tiebreaker, to reach the third round for the third time in five appearances[2]. This outcome explains the 100% YES price on Polymarket today, where the contract resolves to “Amanda Anisimova” because she advanced against Kenin, with USDC stakes locked on Polygon via conditional tokens that now reflect a completed on-chain event[1][5].

Historically, 100% prices on Polymarket for resolved tennis matches appear when the match result is confirmed and no cancellation or retirement ambiguity remains, as seen in prior Wimbledon WTA contracts where the winner advanced cleanly[1][5]. Unlike cases where a player retires mid-match due to injury—such as Anisimova’s earlier retirement against Kenin due to back issues, which would have triggered a 50-50 resolution—this match was fully completed with a clear winner[6]. The absence of delay beyond seven days or a tie ensures the conditional token resolves definitively to Anisimova, mirroring past outcomes where the market price snapped to 100% once the official result was posted[1][9].

Traders should watch for any post-match injury updates or official WTA confirmations that could affect future rounds, though the current contract is already settled[2]. Recent coverage from Tennis Now confirms Anisimova’s survival against Kenin and her progression to the third round, with no indication of match cancellation or retirement that would alter the resolution[1]. The settlement window ending 2026-07-08T10:00:00Z is irrelevant now, as the match concluded on 2 July, and the on-chain mechanics have already executed the payout to holders of the Anisimova token[1][5]. No further catalysts will change the outcome, as the event is complete and the conditional token has resolved.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Wimbledon WTA: Amanda Anisimova vs Sofia Kenin across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.