National Bank Open: Clara Tauson vs Nikola Bartunkova

Platform comparison

Market context

The National Bank Open women’s second-round match between Clara Tauson and Nikola Bartunková is priced on Polymarket at **0% YES** today, so the contract is effectively being treated as if Tauson has no meaningful chance of advancing despite the match being on the schedule. On Polymarket, that means traders are dealing with a USDC-settled position on Polygon, with the outcome mapped through conditional tokens to the verified match result rather than the broader tournament narrative.

That 0% print looks especially striking against mainstream tennis pricing and tournament listings. Tennis.com has the projected winner at 54% for Tauson and 46% for Bartunková, while the National Bank Open and live-score pages listed the fixture as a completed second-round match in Toronto, with Tauson defeating Bartunková 6-3, 6-2 on 4 August 2026.[1][6] For a Polymarket user, that kind of mismatch matters because a cash-settled market on a finished match should usually converge towards the official result once the score is confirmed; when it does not, the path to resolution depends on whether the contract has already been locked, whether the result feed updated, and how the platform’s event handling treats the official tournament record.

The main catalysts now are administrative rather than sporting: the official draw and results page, the tournament’s match centre, and any delay in recognising the completed score on-chain or in the market UI.[6][14] If the match had instead been abandoned or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the market rules would push it to 50-50, so traders still need to watch for any correction to the match status, schedule changes, or post-match officialisation from the National Bank Open rather than relying only on third-party live scores.[6][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.