National Bank Open: Janice Tjen vs Liudmila Samsonova

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token on Janice Tjen versus Liudmila Samsonova at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying Tjen is being treated as an extreme long shot to advance. For a contract like this, that sort of print usually reflects a combination of pre-match expectation, liquidity, and the fact that the market resolves on the actual winner if the match is played, but can still fall back to a 50-50 outcome if the match is not completed within the rule set.

The closest comparable evidence is their previous meeting, which Samsonova won **2-0** in Abu Dhabi on hard court in February 2026, and the head-to-head remains **1-0** in her favour.[1][6][8] Current tournament listings also show Samsonova higher in the rankings than Tjen, with Tennis.com listing Samsonova at **No. 22** and Tjen at **No. 40** in the Toronto draw context.[2][5] That kind of ranking gap, together with the prior straight-sets result, is the main historical frame traders use when reading a near-zero price on Tjen.

The main catalysts are straightforward: the official draw, whether the match is scheduled as posted, and any withdrawal, walkover, rain delay, or rescheduling that pushes it into the market’s 7-day tie mechanics. Because settlement depends on a completed result or the contract’s fallback rules, traders also watch for live score confirmation from tournament and score providers once play begins.[5][8][13] If the match starts but does not finish, the path to settlement depends on who is officially advanced rather than the partial scoreline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Janice Tjen vs Liudmila Samsonova across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.