National Bank Open: Xiyu Wang vs Sara Bejlek

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Sara Bejlek** as a clear favourite here, with the contract effectively marked at **0% YES** for the Xiyu Wang side and no meaningful bid visible on Wang advancing. That matters because the market settles on the winner or, if the match is not played or is left unresolved beyond the 7-day window, reverts to a 50-50 outcome on the contract’s rules rather than a pure outright pick. On Polymarket, the trade is therefore not just about who is stronger on court, but whether the scheduled match in Toronto is actually completed under the event’s settlement terms.

Recent pre-match pricing in the broader market also leans Bejlek’s way: Dimers puts Bejlek around **59%** to win, with Wang near **41%**, while other pricing snapshots have moved around that same general band rather than showing a strong Wang case. That is useful context for a 0% Polymarket print, because tennis contracts can overstate certainty when the underlying fixture is close and the eventual result depends on one retirement, withdrawal, or a scheduling disruption. Comparable Wang–Bejlek meetings have been priced more evenly before, which suggests the current tape is more a reflection of market positioning than a settled competitive mismatch.

The main catalysts now are straightforward: the official order of play, any late injury or withdrawal note, and whether the match starts on the listed August 3 slot or slips inside the seven-day resolution window. Flashscore still lists the meeting for 3 August at 10:00, which is the key date traders should watch for confirmation or delay. On Polymarket, that timing matters because a match that begins but is not completed, or one that is postponed too long without a winner, can change the settlement away from the usual winner-takes-all outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Xiyu Wang vs Sara Bejlek across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.