Clacton by-election: 2nd place

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is pricing the **second-place** finisher in Clacton’s by-election, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, and the market is currently assigning that outcome only about **2%**. In practical terms, traders are saying that whoever comes second is very unlikely to be the name currently offered at this price, which is a useful reminder that this is not a straight winner market but a vote-order market based on valid ballots.

The event is unusually crowded: local and national reporting has put the field at around **34 candidates**, with Nigel Farage standing again for Reform UK and several familiar protest or novelty figures also on the ballot, including Count Binface and Laurence Fox.[7][10][11][12] That matters because second place can be pulled away from a conventional party candidate if the anti-Farage vote fragments, or if a recognisable independent consolidates attention. Earlier campaign coverage also noted that Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens were not contesting the seat, narrowing the field of credible vote-harvesting brands outside Reform.[1][4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the publication of the **official statement of persons nominated**, any late withdrawals or substitutions, and turnout signals as polling day approaches on **13 August 2026**.[3][12][14] Until nominations close, some names remain only declared rather than confirmed, which can matter in a market that resolves on the ranked vote count rather than party label.[3][8] A recent Reuters report confirmed the by-election date and tied it directly to Farage’s resignation, so any fresh campaign coverage, polling, or tactical-voting chatter could move the order beneath the front-runner even if the outright winner remains relatively stable.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Clacton by-election: 2nd place across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.