Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

2026 is projected to be the second-warmest year on record, though a 19% chance remains it could surpass 2024 to claim the top spot [1]. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 34% for YES, implying the crowd believes 2026 will rank higher than second, likely due to the persistent strength of the current El Niño event [1]. Historical data shows the past decade has seen ten consecutive years as the warmest on record, establishing a baseline where any new year entering the top four is virtually certain [2]. With Carbon Brief estimating a 62% probability for a second-place finish, the current 34% market price suggests traders are overweighting the possibility of a record-breaking year or underestimating the likelihood of a third- or fourth-place outcome [1].

Traders should monitor the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index releases from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which serve as the primary verification source for similar markets [2]. The WMO has flagged an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024, making the specific monthly anomalies in the remaining five months of 2026 critical catalysts [6]. Environment Canada’s forecasts for a warmer year driven by greenhouse emissions and natural phenomena will also influence price action as the settlement window approaches 31 December 2026 [4]. Positions are settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, meaning liquidity shifts will react immediately to any new temperature dataset updates before the market closes [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.