Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that figure. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens currently price the 25°C outcome at 54% and 26°C at 23%, while the specific “YES” binary you referenced sits at 0% because it lacks a defined range.

Historical July highs at Schiphol typically cluster between 22°C and 28°C, making the 25°C frontrunner statistically plausible rather than speculative. The current 0% probability for an undefined “YES” outcome reflects the market’s structural design: traders must select a precise temperature band, not a binary yes/no, so the zero figure is an artefact of missing range selection rather than a forecast of impossible heat.

Traders should monitor the daily weather forecast from the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) released each morning, as it dictates short-term temperature trajectories for the capital region. A recent KNMI update highlighted a persistent high-pressure system over the Netherlands for mid-July, which often drives temperatures toward 25–27°C [1]. Settlement depends entirely on the Wunderground daily record for EHAM, so any discrepancy between forecast models and the official station log will determine final token redemption.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.