Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently has this Amsterdam temperature contract priced at **0% YES**, which means traders are assigning no probability to the relevant outcome bucket on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon. The market will resolve against the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station on 31 July 2026, using the Wunderground daily history page as the source of truth, so the only number that matters is the station’s daily maximum, not city-wide readings or forecasts for other parts of the Netherlands.

For context, Amsterdam’s July climate is usually mild rather than hot: long-run averages cluster around the low 20s Celsius, with typical July highs near 22°C and daily highs on 31 July generally in the low-to-mid 20s°C range.[6][8][13] Recorded extremes exist well above that, but they are unusual; public climate summaries put Amsterdam’s month-level record high around 32°C, which is still far from the low-30s heat that would be needed for the upper buckets in many temperature markets.[10] That helps explain why a 0% reading can persist on a granular contract when the remaining temperature bands are seen as compressed around the modal outcome.

A trader should watch the intraday evolution at Schiphol: the official Wunderground station page, late-morning heating, cloud cover, and any sea-breeze shift near the airport can move the day’s peak by a degree or two. Forecast services for Amsterdam were showing a warm but not extreme Friday profile, with highs around 26°C–26.7°C and some drizzle risk, which would keep the market anchored in the mid-range unless conditions overperform materially.[3] Since settlement closes at 12:00 UTC, the relevant question on Polymarket is how the airport’s maximum develops before that cut-off, not what the city reaches later in the afternoon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.