Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is treating an Atlanta airport high-temperature outcome in the relevant range as effectively absent from the tape. The position settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, and the reference point is the highest reading at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport on 1 August 2026 as recorded by Wunderground, not the broader city average.

That scepticism is easy to understand from the climatology. Atlanta’s August average daily high is about 88.7°F, while the long-run record high for August is 104°F, with day-specific records around the start of the month generally sitting in the high 90s to low 100s. The airport station has produced several very hot Augusts, including 104°F on 22 August 2007, but the normal distribution still leaves a wide spread around the upper 80s and low 90s, which is why these markets usually only move sharply if a genuine heat event appears in the forecast data.

A trader watching this market will mainly care about the forecast evolution into the final hours before the settlement window, especially any National Weather Service heat outlooks, model runs, or local airport observations that point to a late-day peak. In practice, the contract is a weather-data trade: if temperatures crest after midday and remain elevated at the airport, the eventual Wunderground history page matters more than city-wide headlines, and any surprise thunderstorm outflow or cloud cover can cap the day’s maximum quickly.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.