Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism uses Wunderground's historical weather data for KATL station, with the market resolving to whichever temperature bracket contains that day's peak reading in Fahrenheit. Currently, Polymarket prices this contract with 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either a data feed issue, thin liquidity, or settlement mechanics that require clarification before meaningful positions can form on-chain.

Atlanta's July climate presents a narrow historical band for forecasting purposes. The city's average high in mid-July hovers around 89°F, with typical daily maxima ranging from 85°F to 93°F across the past three decades. Extreme heat days—those exceeding 95°F—occur roughly once every five to seven years during summer months, whilst readings below 80°F on 13 July would be statistically unusual. The 0% crowd probability reflects either technical settlement concerns or an expectation that traders will wait for seasonal patterns to crystallise closer to the event window.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the National Weather Service's extended forecast for Atlanta beginning in late June 2026, as high-pressure systems and heat domes typically drive July temperature extremes. The Atlantic hurricane season's activity could also influence atmospheric patterns, potentially suppressing or amplifying heat. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's KATL station data availability and accuracy; any outages or sensor issues would affect resolution. The conditional token structure on Polygon means positions require USDC collateral and careful attention to which temperature bracket receives liquidity as the event date approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.