Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and measured against discrete temperature bands in Celsius. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting either incomplete liquidity or a technical state where no single range has attracted sufficient trading volume to register meaningful probability mass. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday readings diverge from headline highs.

August in Beijing typically peaks between 29–34°C, with occasional extremes reaching 35°C or higher during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-August highs rarely fall below 28°C and frequently cluster in the 31–33°C range. The 2010 heat wave pushed temperatures to 40.6°C, an outlier that shaped municipal cooling protocols. Comparing 12 August specifically across recent years reveals consistency: 2023 recorded 33°C, 2022 reached 32°C, and 2021 peaked at 31°C. This pattern anchors expectations around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy. Broader atmospheric patterns—including the East Asian summer monsoon intensity and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific—will influence whether Beijing experiences typical seasonal heat or anomalous conditions. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 August, requiring traders to account for Beijing's UTC+8 timezone when interpreting real-time station data.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.