Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s July heat is notoriously intense, with the capital regularly hitting temperatures above 38°C and occasionally breaching 40°C. Historical records show that in 2023, the highest temperature in July reached 40°C, while Beijing’s all-time high of 41.9°C was recorded on 24 July 1999. The current market pricing 95% YES for a high above 29°C aligns with these patterns, as daily highs in July typically average around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C. Given that even cooler July days stay well above 29°C, the crowd-implied probability reflects a near-certainty grounded in climatology rather than speculation.

On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, with conditional tokens determining the outcome once Wunderground confirms the day’s peak temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport. Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave bulletins and any local emergency alerts urging reduced outdoor exposure, as these often precede record highs. Recent coverage by CBS News highlights how authorities have already begun limiting outdoor activity due to extreme heat, suggesting sustained high temperatures are likely. With settlement at noon UTC on 10 July 2026, the thin volume and forecast risk mean the price may shift sharply if new data emerges before resolution.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.