Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing faces its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the city’s highest temperature recorded at the Capital International Airport Station determining the market outcome. Today, Polymarket prices the contract such that the crowd assigns a 42% probability to a peak of 34°C, while 33°C holds 31%, and the 28°C or below range sits at a near-zero 5% implied chance [1]. This pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics where USDC trades on Polygon via conditional tokens, locking liquidity into specific temperature bins rather than a binary yes/no outcome.

Historical July data frames this distribution, as the month is statistically Beijing’s hottest, with average highs around 31°C but frequent spikes into the mid-30s during heatwaves [7]. Extreme events have pushed temperatures above 40°C, including a record 41.8°C in June 2023 and a 40°C peak in July 2023, suggesting that low ranges like 28°C are statistically improbable for mid-July [2][3]. The current 0% probability for the lowest range aligns with these precedents, where even moderate heat days rarely dip below 30°C in this period.

Traders should monitor the National Meteorological Centre of China’s daily heatwave forecasts and any regional humidity advisories, as moisture levels can amplify perceived heat and influence actual maxima [3]. Recent coverage notes Beijing’s vulnerability to returning heatwaves, with authorities issuing warnings as temperatures soar above 41°C in prior years [3]. Since settlement relies on Wunderground’s daily max for ZBAA, any sudden shifts in forecasted cloud cover or precipitation schedules could alter the final reading, making real-time weather bulletins the primary catalyst for position adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.