Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 at the Capital International Airport station will determine this Polymarket contract, yet the market currently prices a YES outcome at 0%, implying near-certainty that the peak will fall outside the defined range. On Polygon, traders deploy USDC to buy conditional tokens tied to this weather event, with settlement locked until 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, relying exclusively on Wunderground’s daily high for ZBAA.

Historically, late July in Beijing sees peak highs between 32°C and 38°C, with 2023 recording 37.4°C and 2024 reaching 36.9°C at the same station; a 0% probability suggests the market expects the temperature to exceed the upper bound of the range by a significant margin, or that the range itself is implausibly low for mid-summer conditions. Comparable cases show Beijing rarely dips below 30°C on this date, making extreme outliers the only plausible path to a YES resolution.

Traders should monitor the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s 24-hour forecast issued daily at 16:00 local time, which details expected highs and humidity levels that directly influence peak temperatures. A recent report from China Daily on 18 July 2026 notes an incoming heatwave across northern China, with models predicting sustained highs above 37°C through 22 July, reinforcing the market’s bearish stance on lower temperature ranges [1]. Settlement hinges solely on Wunderground’s final entry, so no secondary announcements alter the outcome.

[1] China Daily, "Heatwave grips northern China as temperatures soar above 37°C", 18 July 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.