Highest temperature in Beijing on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Beijing heat market is pricing a **28°C** high as the current frontrunner at **34%**, with **27°C** close behind at **30%** on Polymarket’s USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens. That leaves the book fairly concentrated around the high-20s rather than a sharp move into hotter bands, even though the contract resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station** in the Wunderground history feed.

For context, a zero-per-cent quote on the market outcome would usually imply that traders see the specified temperature range as very unlikely on current information, not impossible. In late July, Beijing often sits in a warm to hot regime, but airport readings can be softer than inner-city temperatures when cloud cover, rain, or onshore flow cap daytime heating. For Polymarket users, the key is that settlement depends on the single official station reading, so localised heat away from the airport does not matter unless it is reflected in that Wunderground record.

The main catalysts are the day’s weather evolution rather than scheduled announcements: morning cloud, afternoon sun, precipitation timing, and whether humidity suppresses or supports a higher peak. Traders should watch the airport station’s observed maxima through the day, plus any forecast updates from major meteorological services that could shift expectations for the late-morning to early-afternoon heating window. Because settlement closes at 12:00 UTC, positioning is especially sensitive to how much warming remains after the first few hours of the UTC day.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.