Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Beijing airport high-temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market currently assigns no meaningful chance that the day’s peak will fall into the YES range on the Wunderground reading at Beijing Capital International Airport Station. Because settlement is tied to that station-specific daily maximum rather than a citywide forecast, traders are effectively pricing the exact airport observation that will be published for 31 July.

For context, Beijing’s late-July climate is normally hot, with mean daily highs around **31–32°C** and July as one of the warmest, wettest months of the year.[1][2][16] Historical Beijing records show that extreme heat is possible: the city’s all-time high reached **41.6°C** in July 2023, while long-run July record highs are in the low-40s Celsius.[1][3][4] But the market is not asking whether Beijing gets hot in general; it is asking where the single observed airport maximum lands within the contract’s bands, so a “0%” price usually reflects either a very wide set of disfavoured outcomes or thin conviction around the exact temperature bucket.

A trader should watch the afternoon heating curve, cloud cover, rainfall, and any thunderstorm risk around the airport, because those are the main short-term drivers of the daily maximum. July in Beijing typically carries significant rain potential and humidity, and even modest convective rain can cap the high well before late afternoon.[1][12][16] On Polymarket, the position is held through USDC on Polygon and settles via conditional tokens, so the relevant event is the final Wunderground daily high at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station rather than a forecast headline or nearby district reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.