Highest temperature in Beijing on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether Beijing’s Capital International Airport will record a peak temperature of 35°C or higher on 4 July 2026. On Polymarket today, the YES contract for this threshold sits at 0% USDC, implying the market believes it is virtually impossible. Yet historical data frames this probability with caution: July in Beijing typically sees daily highs around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C or exceeding 36°C [2]. In 2023, the month’s peak reached 40°C, and Beijing’s all-time high of 41.9°C occurred on 24 July 1999 [4][5]. More recently, China recorded its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with national averages hitting 23.21°C [3].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and any official heatwave alerts, as these directly influence on-chain conditional token pricing. A recent Reuters report noted that extreme heat in China has prompted authorities to urge people to limit outdoor exposure, signalling heightened vigilance for temperature spikes [3]. Dependencies include the resolution source—Wunderground’s daily record for ZBAA—and the settlement window ending 2026-07-04T12:00:00Z. Volume on Polygon remains thin, which can amplify price swings if new data emerges. The market’s 0% stance may reflect thin liquidity rather than definitive meteorological certainty, especially given past July extremes exceeding 35°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.