Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. While the crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome sits at 0%, the market actively prices specific temperature ranges, with 34°C currently favoured at 43% and 33°C at 36% [1]. This pricing reflects a sophisticated on-chain mechanism where USDC trades on Polygon utilise conditional tokens to resolve against the Wunderground data feed, rather than a simple binary bet on the abstract event.

Historical patterns frame this current probability distribution, as July is Beijing’s hottest month with daily highs averaging 88°F (31°C), rarely dropping below 78°F (26°C) [3]. Recent years show a marked increase in extreme heat, with China recording its highest number of hot days exceeding 35°C since 1961 in 2023 [4]. The all-time record for Beijing stands at 41.9°C, set in 1999, while 2023 saw temperatures climb to 40°C, suggesting that a 34°C peak is statistically plausible despite the zero per cent binary "YES" sentiment [5][8].

Traders should monitor the southern suburb observatory readings, which recently hit 40.1°C on 6 July in a comparable year, indicating potential volatility in the airport station data [2]. Key catalysts include the scheduled release of the official daily high from Wunderground and any sudden shifts in the regional heatwave intensity, which has already shattered June temperature records in northern China [7]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026, making the timing of the data feed a critical dependency for conditional token resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.