Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **highest temperature in Chengdu on 1 August** at **0% YES** right now, which is an extreme reading for a market that settles from the day’s peak temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on Wunderground and pays out in USDC via Polygon conditional tokens. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, the contract is effectively a bet on whether Chengdu’s afternoon heat can reach the relevant temperature band before the local day closes, not on the daily average.

The historical frame does not support treating this as an obviously impossible outcome, even though the crowd is. Chengdu’s August climate is typically hot and humid, with average highs around 29–31°C and daily highs often near the upper 80s Fahrenheit, while the first of August is commonly one of the warmest points of the month[1][2][12]. Several climate sources also show that Chengdu has produced much higher single-day extremes, with record highs above 39°C in historical August data and occasional days in the low to mid-30s Celsius even in recent Augusts[3][16]. That means the distribution is broad enough that a zero bid is more about market conviction than about meteorological impossibility.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s forecast path, cloud cover, rainfall timing, and how quickly afternoon heating builds at the airport station rather than in the city centre. Chengdu’s August weather is usually wet, with frequent rain and high humidity that can cap extremes, but it also sees enough hot days for spikes above 32°C when the rain holds off[2][3][12]. The practical Polymarket angle is that this contract is sensitive to any late shift in precipitation timing or intensity, because the settlement source is a single station reading rather than a citywide average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.