Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine this market's settlement. The contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which range will resolve or a technical pricing anomaly. Polymarket's USDC settlement on Polygon means traders holding conditional tokens for whichever temperature bracket wins will convert to stablecoin value at 12:00 UTC that day, with resolution dependent on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than their summary figures—a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies worth monitoring.

Chengdu's August climate shows consistent patterns: the city experiences peak summer heat during this month, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 28–34°C. The 2025 August average high sat around 31°C, whilst extreme heat events pushing toward 36–38°C occur roughly once every three to five years. The 0% crowd probability across all bands suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader participation to establish meaningful price discovery, making historical volatility the primary reference point for evaluating which temperature ranges carry genuine tail risk.

Weather forecasting accuracy for single-day temperatures eight months ahead remains poor; seasonal patterns and real-time atmospheric conditions will matter far more than current models. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration updates as August approaches, particularly any announcements regarding heat waves or anomalous pressure systems affecting central Sichuan Province. The settlement window's noon UTC cutoff means traders must account for Chengdu's local timezone (UTC+8) when interpreting final observations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.