Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively treating a qualifying Chengdu airport high for 4 August as impossible or not yet meaningfully priced. On Polymarket, traders hold **USDC** positions against **conditional tokens** on **Polygon**, and resolution here will depend on the highest temperature published for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in the Wunderground daily history record for that day.

For context, Chengdu’s August climate is normally hot, humid and rain-prone rather than cool; long-run guides place typical daytime highs around **30–32°C**, with some late-summer days reaching the **low-to-mid 30s** and occasional readings above **35°C**. Recent forecast pages for 4 August point to highs around **31–32°C** with possible scattered or patchy rain, which would fit a result in the low-30s range if cloud cover or showers limit heating, but they also leave room for a brief afternoon spike if sunshine wins out. That is why a zero-price market can still be read as a statement about current liquidity and positioning, not a literal forecast of impossible weather.

A trader should watch the day’s hour-by-hour forecast updates, radar trends, and any shift in rain timing, because Chengdu’s peak temperatures often depend on whether convection develops before mid-afternoon. The key dependency is the station’s recorded maximum on Wunderground rather than citywide averages, so local airport conditions matter more than broader Chengdu forecasts; if the first post-midnight datapoint for 5 August is published, later revisions should not affect settlement under the market rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.