Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is currently experiencing early-July heat, with meteorological agencies forecasting peak temperatures around 34–35°C for the preceding day under cloudy skies, while the market for 13 July 2026 shows a 0% probability for the lowest temperature range despite historical climatology often centring on 30–32°C [1][2]. This near-zero pricing for the lower bound contrasts sharply with recent early-July observations that frequently record 34–36°C readings under similar atmospheric conditions, suggesting traders are pricing in a significant heat spike rather than average summer weather [1].

Historical data frames this divergence, as July is one of Chengdu’s hottest and most fuggy months, with temperatures occasionally reaching up to 38°C, comparable to Singapore or Kuala Lumpur in peak summer [3]. While the 24-hour daily mean in July sits around 25°C with afternoon highs typically reaching 33°C, extremes have previously climbed to 39.4°C, and China recently experienced its hottest month on record in July since comprehensive data collection began in 1961 [6][8]. The current frontrunner in the market is the 38°C range at 34%, followed by 37°C at 28%, indicating the crowd anticipates a record-breaking day rather than a standard summer high [1].

Traders monitoring this USDC-denominated contract on the Polygon network should watch real-time updates from Wunderground for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day [1]. The conditional tokens representing these temperature ranges will settle automatically once the settlement window closes at 2026-07-13T12:00:00Z, making the hourly temperature progression the sole catalyst for price movement [1]. Given the recent trend of record heat across China, any sudden shift in cloud cover or humidity levels reported by local meteorological agencies could rapidly alter the implied probabilities for the upper temperature brackets [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.